The visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan and the military exercise that Beijing organised after have highlighted China's constant pressure over the self-governing island that Beijing sees as a break-away province. This pressure has increased in recent years under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, as China becomes increasingly assertive in the region in the South China Sea. The Chinese government and military have clearly stated their intention to achieve “reunification” by force if necessary.
In response to Pelosi’s visit that it saw as a provocation, China launched live-fire drills around Taiwan. This rare demonstration of force has attracted world-wide attention but Taiwan faces regular harassment by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). In fact, the Chinese Air Force has been conducting regular incursions in Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the past years. The US Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) defines it as “an area of airspace over land or water, in which the ready identification, location, and control of all aircraft (except Department of Defense and law enforcement aircraft) is required in the interest of national security”. This zone is not yet territorial airspace; however, it sends clear signals to the Taiwanese authorities and defence.
The graph below shows the number of aircraft that have entered Taiwan’s ADIZ over a year - from 1st August 2021 to 1st August 2022. The PLA conducted incursions 74% of the year with groups of 4 aircraft on average.
Source: Data published by Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C., @MoNDefense
All incursions penetrated Taiwan’s ADIZ along the southern limit of the area. The large majority (90,7%) stayed in the south-west corner of this zone. Only 25 occurrences cut across the entire southern area. A likely explanation for this localisation is the distance with Taiwan's territory, which could reduce the likelihood of escalation due to miscalculation. On the other hand, it is unlikely that China would plan to invade in the South as the few beaches there are equipped with off-coast barricades and far from the main strategic objectives.
Examples of incursions located in the south-west and south of Taiwan’s ADIZ
Source: Data published by Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C., @MoNDefense
The table below shows the distribution of the different aircraft that entered Taiwan’s ADIZ in over a year. It shows that of the total number of aircraft, a large majority were fighter aircraft (64%), amongst a large majority were Shenyang J-16. In addition, transport aircraft - mainly Y-8 planes - amounted to 25% of the intruders.
Source: Data published by Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C., @MoNDefense
Five noticeably large missions were launched on October 4th in 2021 and January 23rd, May 30th, June 21st, and June 23rd in 2022. Their compositions are shown in the graph below, which shows that they a composed of a majority of fighter aircraft.
Source: Data published by Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C., @MoNDefense
The incursion on June 23rd occurred as Beijing extended its economic pressure on Taiwan and banned fish importation from the island, arguing that banned chemicals and excessive levels of other drugs were found. This accusation was refuted by the Taiwanese authorities and follows a pattern of economic pressures on the Island as Beijing pushes for unification.
In addition, the last three main incursions happened as tension was mounting not only between China and Taiwan but also with the US and other countries in the region, as exposed in the Shangrila dialogue on June 10-12th.
Overall, Taiwan has been experiencing constant security challenges with the PLA’s incursions in its ADIZ in addition to the economic and political pressures exercised by Beijing. These incursions have occurred 261 days over a year - from 1st August 2021 to 1st August 2022 - or 71,5% of the year. With this threat, Taiwan is reminded constantly reminded of China’s goal to integrate the independently and democratically governed island to the People’s Republic of China. As tension rises in the region this not only constraint the Taiwanese government but pushes both regimes to increase their military capabilities but it also increases the risk of miscalculation with potential dramatic results. The recent military drills only accentuate this risk and shows that China might be preparing itself for an invasion whilst Taiwan is strengthening its defence.
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