Since the beginning of this year, the North Korean regime has been conducting the largest number of missile launches in its history. As the attention of the world, and the West in particular, is focused on Ukraine and economic difficulties, Pyongyang has multiplied its missiles tests and demonstration of force. Meanwhile, experts have warned that one or several nuclear tests could be imminent as evidence of activity near a testing facility have emerged. What are the objectives of North Korea and what can we expect in the coming months?
A Record Breaking Year
North Korea has launched series of missiles test this year, especially in January and in the past two months. Pyongyang has tested more missiles than any other year. These include mainly a number of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) and eight identified intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). In particular, Pyongyang affirmed having tested the Hwasong-17, which, if operational would be the "largest road-mobile, liquid-fuelled ICBM in the world" with the greatest perceived range. It could carry multiple warheads and reach the United States (US). Conducted in March, this test was largely relayed by the North Korea state media; however, experts expressed doubt that the test was in fact successful. The graph below produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows the evolution of the number and nature of North Korea's missile tests.
More recently, North Korea has sent a missile over Japan for the first time in five years and fired a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles as well as artillery shells as a "serious warning" to South Korea.
In the meantime, experts and defence institutions have warned that North Korea is preparing for one or several nuclear tests in the near future. In fact, analysis of satellite images have shown important construction work at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility with the construction of several tunnels. Experts estimate that the regime has likely produced “20 to 30 warheads for delivery primarily by medium-range ballistic missiles” according to Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda of Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists. It remains unclear whether these weapons can be detonated accurately in the combat field.
The Meaning of These Tests
These tests are conducted for several reasons. First, the ballistic missile programme seems to have make significant progress over the past years and testing is crucial to ensure the readiness of these growing capabilities. Second, the development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons is a political priority for Pyongyang that is aimed at ensuring regime survival and constitute a proof of the country's status. Since the Korean War, the US has had a strong presence in the region, with about 80,000 active-duty personnel stationed in Japan and South Korea. These tests send messages, particularly to the US and its allies that the regime is ready and capable of defending its territory. The threat of nuclear weapons offer an additional level of risk for any country that would intend to attack North Korea. In addition, Pyongyang has clearly signalled its irritation with the regular drills organised by the US and its allies in surrounding seas and is conducting these tests also as a response and threat to push for these exercises to stop. Finally, Pyongyang is both sending a warning to its adversaries and pushing the limits further while expecting less repercussions with the war in Ukraine and the US' attention focused on European defence.
Looking forward
There is little indication that Pyongyang will accept to de-escalate. The North Korea regime sees the nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrence guarantee against its main adversary: the United States. The war in Ukraine is likely to have reinforced the perception that the threat of nuclear war has deterred NATO and the US to interfere in favour of Ukraine. While recession is looming and the West's attention is turned towards Ukraine and China, Pyongyang will likely receive less global and American attention for its missile tests. At the same time, this demonstration of force serves as a deterrence for countries that would be tempted to stop its nuclear and missile programmes by military means. It sends a strong signal to South Korea's new conservative president and government, which have voiced support for stronger response to Pyongyang's provocations, as well as to a strengthening Japan.
In fact, Seoul and Tokyo have been alarmed by the large number of missiles and round of artillery shells fired by North Korea. The looming threat of nuclear weapons has further increased the sentiment of rising insecurity. This led part of the political leadership to call for nuclear weapons to be hosted in their country. Notably, late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe argued that Japan should consider hosting US nuclear weapons and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo wrote that "it is time for the government to thoroughly review the nuclear strategy toward the North" and in the view of protecting national security through a "military balance". This threat also contributes to improve the very difficult relationship between South Korea and Japan, and increase security cooperation between the two countries along with the US. Finally, North Korea's provocations have also impacted the US-China relationship by contributing to convince Washington that Beijing is not ready to cooperate on specific issues, deepening their rivalry.
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